Marvin Shilmer

Joined

• started 433 topics
• posted 4,004 times   see topics posted on
• send a message

Posts by Marvin Shilmer

• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  "Were there any pts aged 16-18 y.o included in the JW group amongst the 21 deaths reported who died from refusing BT?"

  No.

  The other stuff you wrote above avoids the point. There is nothing to reply to.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Exactly, I'm trying to come up with the likely number of JW deaths and causes of death based on standard rates for the entire population.

  “While there may be some reasons why some figures would vary (e.g. JWs not smoking, less likely to take drugs etc...) I doubt the figures would be massively different.

  “Taking the percentages for the whole population (350m) and applying it to a 7.5m segment of that is a lot sounder than taking 19 and applying it to 7.5m”

  Simon,

  Your approach does only one thing: It gives us an estimated number of JWs who died of various causes based on an assumption that JWs suffer death at the same rate and for the same reasons as the general population.

  That’s fine for estimating general mortality among JWs. I have no beef with that.

  What’s wrongheaded about your approach is that it tells us nothing whatsoever about deaths due to refusal of blood, and it gives us no benchmark to compare these known number of deaths against because these deaths from blood refusal are contained within the very statistic you’ve created. To compare deaths due to blood refusal to other causes of death you must first find a method to extract deaths due to blood refusal.

  My article using Beliaev’s data set showing 19 deaths due to blood refusal is designed to help ansewr that question, and it’s performed in a service area that allows us to build a ratio of deaths per capita of JWs for refusing blood.

  When I initially performed this extrapolation I did make comparison with other causes of death and asked myself the question of whether this number of deaths (due to refusing blood) could possibly be hidden within these general causes of death. The answer was yes. Easily! Another question I asked myself was what this number of deaths would look like to the average JW in any given congregation or circuit. When I built statistics around congregation and circuit communities of JWs it became apparent that this number of deaths would hardly be perceptible. This was only made worse by the sociological practice among JWs to downplay instances where blood refusal was big news and the JW patient died.

  I looked at this whole thing from many perspectives before publishing my findings. One thing I made sure of was to maintain conservative factors each time I had to include a factor for the mathematics of the whole thing.

  It’s apparent that some here disagree with me, and I’m perfectly fine with that. But I remain convinced that at least 50,000 JWs have died over blood refusal since year 1961.

  Not too much attention has been given to why I chose 1961. Primarily this decision stems from reading hundreds of legal cases filed in relation to JWs refusing blood. There is a hug database out there of legal cases filed in criminal and civil courts. Properly filtered a picture emerged that prior to 1961 when JWs were not disfellowshipped for accepting blood the response of JWs to Watchtower’s blood doctrine was very different than at and after 1961. In 1961 JWs began refusing blood like never before. Hence my focus on 1961 onward.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Still, it's nice to see there are more studies available - they can certainly be used to construct a more comprehensive model.”

  Simon,

  I have hundreds of these studies in my library. They’re helpful toward understanding there’s significant mortality figures out there due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine. But for purposes of extrapolating an overall estimate of deaths due to Watchtower doctrine there is a near universal lack of sufficient data because they’re usually always of some condition that is either 1) not easily comparable across gender boundaries (like obstetric hemorrhage), or 2) of a morbidity that is only a relatively minor factor in the overall picture (like heart surgery) or 3) is not conducive to identifying a given population of JWs in order to calculate an overall mortality rate.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  Adamah,

  I had a colleague make inquiry.

  None of the minors included in Beliaev’s study died for blood refusal.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “The other causes of death are based on the figures for the general population with the same percentages applied to the JW population. If more JWs were dying because of refusing blood transfusions then those would be in addition to those values shown which would be larger to encompass them. I don't think your point is at all relevant as it wouldn't materially change things.”

  Simon,

  You’re operating under a false premise.

  We have mortality figures for the population in general.

  We do not have mortality figures specific to JWs to know if their mortality rate is higher than the general population.

  If we assume JWs would have an identical mortality rate as the general population were it not for their unique blood refusal then the factor of blood refusal would only increase that mortality rate for conditions like, for instance, severe anemia.

  As it stands deaths of JWs due to refusal of blood are distributed throughout that table you showed a few pages back. Because of this it is impossible to compare one with the other without being able to extract one from the other first.

  “Personally, I think a claim that at least 3 out of every 100 JW deaths would be due to refusing blood is laughable.”

  Yes. You’ve made that clear. What you’ve not made clear is that you understand the math showing how well dispersed these figures are to the point of not being able to observe without retrospective statistical analysis. I don't think you understand this at all. But, then, we each are entitled to opinion. Right?

  “I doubt 3 out of every 100 even have "refusing blood" come up as an issue. How many people simply die of old age? Not every death is a dramatic event.”

  You probably won’t understand this, but I’m going to point it out anyway. The “refusing blood” issue arises as a factor every time a JWs presents themselves for medical service. When or if this has an impact on a patient’s survival is often unknown (and maybe unknowable) at the time. It can only be identified after the fact by a statistical analysis of hundreds if not thousands of patient outcomes.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  Adamah,

  For varied reasons you and I hold different views on how much the teens in Beliaev’s study (assuming there were teens in the group) would influence the number I concluded. That aside for a moment, I’m not sure your direct comparison of legality has the effect you think because in service areas like the USA though the law is different I’m not so sure the outcome is different. Let me explain what I mean.

  Doctors in the USA have a duty to provide appropriate care for all patients.

  When an adult patient refuses appropriate care doctors are not allowed to overturn the decision unless the patient is incompetent or does not have a healthcare proxy completed when they were competent.

  When a doctor is confronted with refusal of treatment by a minor or parents/guardians of a minor a legal and ethical challenge arises over what is appropriate care for the patient when alternative treatment exists. Because there is much gray area in medical science as to what is appropriate care under most circumstances doctors in the USA have been compelled to apply alternative medical therapy though it’s not what they think is most appropriate. In effect, they are compelled by peers and this pressure is brought to bear through the conduit of Watchtower’s Hospital Liaison Committee groups.

  In comes practitioners like James Isbister and Aryeh Shander. These men have good credentials and training, and they are influential when called upon for consultation. Both these men (and many more like them with their own ideas of appropriate use of blood product) have made a pretty good living off the patient population of JWs. I’m not suggesting these men have somehow mistreated this patient population or otherwise behaved inappropriately. What I’m suggesting is that when these men speak up about success they’ve had treating JWs without blood it places pressure on local clinicians to approximate the same therapy in order to avoid complications such as legal costs.

  I don’t want to reveal his name, but I know a now-retired cardiologist who was among the very best in the world at treating pediatric heart patients. I was in the room with him several years ago with a JW child under discussion. He flatly refused a particular treatment option saying it was an unethical because there was a safer option that would fix the problem whereas the treatment at issue was only temporary and the safer option would eventually have to be performed. He explained in detail one risk in particular of the temporary fix. He said it would place undo stress on the child’s heart causing it to enlarge, which would place the child at increased risk of death. The local HLC member in the room had prearranged a phone conference with another world-class pediatric cardiologist. This consultant went on and on about how the procedure was completely acceptable and was well within standards risk acceptability. She plied lots of information on how many times she’s performed this procedure with success. The heart surgeon on my end was upset by this consult, but he eventually agreed to perform the temporary fix job. The child died 1-1/2 years later of an enlarged heart at a hospital more than 300 miles away from the cardiologist.

  This thing happened to a near infant. I’ve been in rooms on many occasions where the same thing was done, and more often than most people would expect, the physician lays down and does what he or she’s asked.

  That baby’s cause of death was not filed as “refused blood”. But that’s what caused that child to lose its life.

  This is how things have been structured and to this day we still have children dying as the result.

  Have you read the Watchtower organization’s May 22, 1994 journal issue of Awake? Take a look. You’ll see what I’m talking about.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Let me be clearer: are you saying that out of every 100, over 3 of them will die as a result of refusing blood? Do you think that number looks reasonable compared to other established figures.”

  Simon,

  There are no "established figures" for how many JWs die the result of refusing blood.

  What you term “established figures” are deaths across a spectrum of causes within which is buried deaths attributable to refusal of blood. You can’t compare against these “established figures” when what you’re comparing against is within the same figures. You have to have a way of extracting the deaths in each case attributable to refusal of blood. This is something the data set from Beliaev offers some insight into.

  That 3 of 100 deaths is attributable to refusing blood transfusion among a group who refuses blood transfusion regardless of disease or condition considering that all 100 will suffer multiple diseases and/or conditions during their lifetime is no shock to my senses.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “I don't know where you think I've insulted you.”

  Simon,

  Respectfully, since you don’t seem to understand it then let me spell it out for you:

  Telling someone they are intentionally ignoring a substantive issue for sake of a preferential view is an insult.

  Any questions about that? Do I need to underline it?

  “So, do you believe that roughly 3+ people out of every KH will die from refusing blood?”

  “From refusing blood” is the tricky part for all the reasons I expressed in this discussion.

  I believe it entirely possible that among a group of people who refuse a medical treatment used across a broad range of presentations and is important to mortality in each case that that group of people will end up suffering the rate you cite. Problem is this is not apparent at the time and it’s only recognizable after the fact when/if someone digs through thousands and thousands of individual patient records to look for a common denominator. In the case of JWs that common denominator is refusal of blood product.

  “No one is questioning the value in very specific circumstances. But you are taking the outcomes of those very specific circumstances and applying it to many others that don't match.

  “In some cases refusing blood will have saved someone's life. We rightly don't take those specific outcomes and try and apply it to all JWs do we?”

  JWs refusing red cell transfusion in the Beliaev study had all manner of Watchtower approved alternative therapy applied. If these alternative treatments saved someone’s life then it showed up in the data set as a non-mortality.

  As for applying specific circumstances to others that don’t match, I’m not doing that at all. What it takes to be a healthy human in New Zealand is no different than what it takes to be a healthy human anywhere else in the world. Humans have similar anatomies, morbidities etc. Hence my treatment of statistics in the Beliaev study does no more than transpose the result onto the total population of JWs in the world by treating them all as equal.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Whether you realize it or not, you ARE making a claim in your assumption that is implied: you ARE claiming that the rates of rejection are the SAME in NZ JW and in JW's Worldwide, and hence the burden of proof falls on YOU to PROVE that claim, since YOU want to make the positive assertion that this assumption is valid.”

  Adamah,

  I do assume what you say for sake of an extrapolation.

  If someone has reason to doubt that assumption then they will have reason to doubt my extrapolation to the extent they think it a factor.

  To my knowledge no one can quantify the point you raise so I accounted for the factor by assuming the neutral. I'm fine with that, and I'm fine leaving it for each person to make of as they wish. This is why I stated the assumption.

  “Marvin, it comes down to this:

  “Does the sub-population of JWs with anemia who refused blood and who were included in the study have a higher mortality rate than:

  “1.JWs
  2.JWs in NZ
  3.JWs in NZ who face a treatment choice
  4.JWs in NZ who face a treatment choice and refuse blood
  5.JWs in NZ who face a treatment choice and refuse blood and were in the study area
  6.JWs in NZ who face a treatment choice and refuse blood and were in the study area but excluded from it

  “If your answer to those is "yes" then how can you extrapolate the numbers to those populations? Even the last couple would be a stretch, the first ones would be a giant leap.”

  Simon,

  I do not answer yes to those questions because I treat each one on par between the JW population in New Zealand and the rest of the world on average.

  My extrapolation assumes in each case that JWs elsewhere in the world do not on average have a higher mortality rate than the 12,700 annual number of JWs living in New Zealand at the time for all causes and circumstances. My reason for thinking this a safe (conservative) assumption is because of the published longevity and healthcare opportunities available to JWs living in New Zealand compared to the rest of the world on average.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Marvin is focusing on this particular study because other studies have failed to show increased mortality, at least not in the way this study dos. But this study was one study, in only four hospitals, in one part of one small country. It simply cannot be extrapolated out over the entire JW population, over fifty years. But, as everyone else has said, even one death is too many and we should focus on those individuals and their stories, rather than trying to make this study show something it doesn't and can't.”

  LisaRose,

  That’s rubbish!

  All studies known to me show that risk of mortality increases with decrease in Hb level < 7-8 g dL accompanied by lack of red cell transfusion (whether refusal, neglect or lack of resources).

  This is not what’s unique about the Beliaev study, and I’m not going to keep repeating myself. If you want to know what is unique (in my view) of Beliaev’s study then dig back through this discussion. It’s there multiple time and expressed multiple ways.

  Marvin Shilmer